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Högsby vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Högsby
Högsby
FT
1 – 3
Asarum
Asarum
4/30/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 5Arena Högsby kommun 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Högsby36%
×Draw23%
Asarum41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Högsby
1.58
Asarum
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Högsby
1.00
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Högsby
1.92
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Högsby+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Högsby ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Högsby or draw
59%
Högsby or Asarum
77%
Draw or Asarum
64%

Winning margin

Högsby wins by 2+
17%
Asarum wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Högsby 1+ goals
79%
Högsby 2+ goals
47%
Högsby 3+ goals
21%
Asarum 1+ goals
82%
Asarum 2+ goals
51%
Asarum 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Högsby (draw refunded)
46%
Asarum (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Högsby at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Högsby attack 1.00 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Asarum attack 1.51 + Högsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Högsby scores more
36%
level
23%
Asarum scores more
41%

Asarum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Asarum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Högsby 1–3 Asarum

Asarum beat Högsby 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Högsby kommun 1 in Högsby.