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Högsby vs Ariana — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Högsby
Högsby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ariana
Ariana
10/8/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 25Frövi IP Arena Ulf Davidsson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Högsby19%
×Draw23%
Ariana58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Högsby
0.96
Ariana
1.84

Ariana creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Högsby
1.00
Ariana
1.77

allows per match

Högsby
1.92
Ariana
0.92

finishing

Högsby+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Högsby ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Högsby or draw
42%
Högsby or Ariana
77%
Draw or Ariana
81%

Winning margin

Högsby wins by 2+
7%
Ariana wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Högsby 1+ goals
62%
Högsby 2+ goals
25%
Högsby 3+ goals
7%
Ariana 1+ goals
84%
Ariana 2+ goals
55%
Ariana 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Högsby (draw refunded)
25%
Ariana (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Högsby at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Högsby attack 1.00 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ariana attack 1.77 + Högsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Högsby scores more
19%
level
23%
Ariana scores more
58%

Ariana at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Högsby vs Ariana

Högsby and Ariana drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Frövi IP Arena Ulf Davidsson in Högsby.