Hogar Alcarreño 1–3 Huracán Balazote

Hogar Alcarreño

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Huracán Balazote

10/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 6Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hogar Alcarreño31%

×Draw26%

Huracán Balazote43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hogar AlcarreñoExpected goals in this matchHuracán Balazote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.44

Hogar Alcarreño

1.19

Huracán Balazote

1.44

Huracán Balazote creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 81 away

0.94

creates per match

0.95

1.94

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hogar Alcarreño

0.94

Huracán Balazote

0.95

allows per match

Hogar Alcarreño

1.94

Huracán Balazote

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hogar Alcarreño ↓

Huracán Balazote →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hogar Alcarreño or draw

57%

Hogar Alcarreño or Huracán Balazote

74%

Draw or Huracán Balazote

69%

Winning margin

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+

13%

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals

70%

Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals

33%

Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals

12%

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals

76%

Huracán Balazote 2+ goals

42%

Huracán Balazote 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)

42%

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hogar Alcarreño at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.94 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hogar Alcarreño scores more

31%

level

26%

Huracán Balazote scores more

43%

Huracán Balazote at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 1–3 Huracán Balazote

Huracán Balazote beat Hogar Alcarreño 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña in Guadalajara.

Hogar Alcarreño vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 1–3 Huracán Balazote