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Hoffenheim U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
9/14/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 6Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hoffenheim U1943%
×Draw20%
Stuttgart U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim U19
2.24
Stuttgart U19
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19
3.14
Stuttgart U19
2.75

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19
1.36
Stuttgart U19
1.34

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par
Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw
63%
Hoffenheim U19 or Stuttgart U19
80%
Draw or Stuttgart U19
57%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
25%
Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
89%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
65%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
38%
Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
87%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
61%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.14 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.75 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
Stuttgart U19 scores more
37%

Hoffenheim U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 3–3 Stuttgart U19

Hoffenheim U19 and Stuttgart U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.