Hoffenheim U19 6–1 Kickers Offenbach U19

Hoffenheim U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Kickers Offenbach U19

L. Leuze 70'

U. Tohumcu 49', 20'

F. Bähr 35'

T. Bischof 27'

R. Bočs 13'

M. Aimene 33'

9/25/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hoffenheim U1975%

×Draw14%

Kickers Offenbach U1911%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

1.17

Hoffenheim U19

3.12

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.17

Hoffenheim U19 creates 167% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 47 away

3.17

creates per match

0.98

1.36

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

89%

Hoffenheim U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

86%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

25%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

56%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

95%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

81%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

59%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

69%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

33%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 3.12

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

75%

level

14%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

11%

Hoffenheim U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

20'

27'

33'

35'

46'

L. Haskaj← T. Drexler

49'

R. Mrvelj← E. Mahmuti

49'

U. Tohumcu

57'

L. Leuze← B. Conté

57'

L. Tamarez← D. Obiogumu

62'

K. Iraqi← B. von Hagen

62'

N. Acun← M. Kosch

70'

L. Leuze

73'

J. Blockus← S. Puth

78'

A. Camara← R. Bočs

Hoffenheim

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Rapp

46'▲L. Haskaj←▼T. Drexler

57'▲L. Leuze←▼B. Conté

57'▲L. Tamarez←▼D. Obiogumu

78'▲A. Camara←▼R. Bočs

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

HaskajLeuzeTamarezCamaraWeikSiegers

Manager: R. Trabert

49'▲R. Mrvelj←▼E. Mahmuti

62'▲K. Iraqi←▼B. von Hagen

62'▲N. Acun←▼M. Kosch

73'▲J. Blockus←▼S. Puth

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

MrveljIraqiAcunBlockusStarodidHannigStritter

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 6–1 Kickers Offenbach U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 25, 2021.

Goals: R. Bočs (13'), U. Tohumcu (20', 49'), T. Bischof (27'), M. Aimene (33'), F. Bähr (35'), L. Leuze (70').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.

Hoffenheim U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 6–1 Kickers Offenbach U19