Hoffenheim U19 5–2 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Hoffenheim U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Freiburg U19

D. Obiogumu 90+4'

T. Bischof 85'

F. Hagmann 76' (pen)

Adam Mulele 30'

D. Dağdeviren 12'

Y. Sturm 55' (pen)

M. Wörner 24'

9/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hoffenheim U1956%

×Draw19%

Freiburg U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.56

Hoffenheim U19

2.43

Freiburg U19

1.56

Hoffenheim U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

3.17

creates per match

1.76

1.36

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

76%

Hoffenheim U19 or Freiburg U19

81%

Draw or Freiburg U19

44%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

36%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

91%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

69%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

43%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

79%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

46%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.43

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

56%

level

19%

Freiburg U19 scores more

24%

Hoffenheim U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Dağdeviren

24'

M. Wörner

30'

Adam Mulele

46'

D. Amegnaglo← L. Tober

55'

F. Micheler← D. Dağdeviren

55'

R. Wagner← P. Hennrich

55'

Y. SturmPenalty

58'

D. Schopper← M. Wörner

60'

R. Pfauser

72'

A. Benelmir← A. Jogerst

72'

L. Marino← G. Pellegrino

76'

H. Behrens← F. Hagmann

76'

F. HagmannPenalty

83'

K. Steinmann← B. Yilmaz

85'

T. Bischof

89'

D. Arnst← Adam Mulele

90+3'

T. Bischof

90+3'

T. Bischof

90+4'

D. Obiogumu

Hoffenheim

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Dağdevire

⚽

Obiogumu

⚽

▼

Mulele

Manager: S. Lerch

55'▲F. Micheler←▼D. Dağdeviren

55'▲R. Wagner←▼P. Hennrich

76'▲H. Behrens←▼F. Hagmann

89'▲D. Arnst←▼Adam Mulele

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

MichelerWagnerBehrensArnstGebauerSiegersOttilinger

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲D. Amegnaglo←▼L. Tober

58'▲D. Schopper←▼M. Wörner

72'▲A. Benelmir←▼A. Jogerst

72'▲L. Marino←▼G. Pellegrino

83'▲K. Steinmann←▼B. Yilmaz

Freiburg U19 substitutes

AmegnagloSchopperBenelmirMarinoSteinmannEchnerEßlinger

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 5–2 Freiburg U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Freiburg U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 4, 2022.

Goals: D. Dağdeviren (12'), M. Wörner (24'), Adam Mulele (30'), Y. Sturm (55' pen), F. Hagmann (76' pen), T. Bischof (85'), D. Obiogumu (90+4').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.

Hoffenheim U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 5–2 Freiburg U19