Hoffenheim U19 3–1 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Hoffenheim U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Darmstadt 98 U19

D. Obiogumu 77', 33'

B. Huber 29'

L. Kaiser 57'

8/20/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hoffenheim U1963%

×Draw18%

Darmstadt 98 U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.46

Hoffenheim U19

2.71

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.46

Hoffenheim U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

3.17

creates per match

1.56

1.36

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

81%

Hoffenheim U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

82%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

37%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

43%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

93%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

75%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

50%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

77%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

43%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.71

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

19%

Hoffenheim U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

B. Huber

33'

D. Obiogumu

46'

D. Perrone← N. Sørensen

46'

L. Weik← M. Rehuš

53'

F. Mbassi

55'

Adam Mulele← D. Arnst

57'

62'

75'

75'

77'

D. Dağdeviren← P. Hennrich

77'

D. Obiogumu

86'

L. Haskaj← B. Huber

Hoffenheim

Darmstadt

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: S. Lerch

46'▲D. Perrone←▼N. Sørensen

46'▲L. Weik←▼M. Rehuš

55'▲Adam Mulele←▼D. Arnst

77'▲D. Dağdeviren←▼P. Hennrich

86'▲L. Haskaj←▼B. Huber

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

PerroneWeikMuleleDağdevirenHaskajStroblSiegers

Manager: D. Petrowsky

62'▲N. Baier←▼L. Kaiser

75'▲A. Arania←▼M. Riemer

75'▲M. Borger←▼A. Toch

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

BaierAraniaBorgerKarakusHeldBeckerVrdoljak

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 20, 2022.

Goals: B. Huber (29'), D. Obiogumu (33', 77'), L. Kaiser (57').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.

Hoffenheim U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19