Hoffenheim II vs Freiburg II — League #86 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Hoffenheim II59%
Freiburg II21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hoffenheim II creates 73% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hoffenheim II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hoffenheim II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches
Freiburg II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hoffenheim II attack 2.33 + Freiburg II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.37
Freiburg II attack 1.30 + Hoffenheim II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Hoffenheim II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Hoffenheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Hoffenheim II substitutes
Head to Head
FC 08 Homburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Eintracht Trier
Stuttgarter Kickers
FSV Frankfurt
Hessen Kassel
TSV Steinbach
SV SandhausenFreiburg II
FC Astoria Walldorf
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
SGV Freiberg
Balingen
Bayern Alzenau
Kickers Offenbach
Bahlinger SC
Schott Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hoffenheim II host Freiburg II on Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #86 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hoffenheim II vs Freiburg II
Hoffenheim II beat Freiburg II 3-0 in League #86 on March 16, 2025.
Goals: V. Lässig (45+3'), M. Moerstedt (49'), D. Dağdeviren (71').
The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.