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Hoek vs Sportlust '46 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
3/11/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 25Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hoek41%
×Draw23%
Sportlust '4637%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
1.76
Sportlust '46
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.10
Sportlust '46
1.66

allows per match

Hoek
1.69
Sportlust '46
1.42

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
Sportlust '46+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

Sportlust '46 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
63%
Hoek or Sportlust '46
77%
Draw or Sportlust '46
59%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
21%
Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
83%
Hoek 2+ goals
52%
Hoek 3+ goals
26%
Sportlust '46 1+ goals
81%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
50%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
52%
Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

Sportlust '46 away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + Sportlust '46 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sportlust '46 attack 1.66 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hoek scores more
41%
level
23%
Sportlust '46 scores more
37%

Hoek at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoek 4–0 Sportlust '46

Hoek beat Sportlust '46 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.