Hoek 3–2 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

Hoek

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

RKAV Volendam

R. Impens 70'

S. Schalkwijk 35'

S. Hage 7'

D. Zwarthoed 86'

R. Tol 13'

5/6/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 31Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoek48%

×Draw21%

RKAV Volendam31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HoekExpected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.71

Hoek

2.16

RKAV Volendam

1.71

Hoek creates 26% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

2.10

creates per match

1.74

1.69

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Hoek

2.10

RKAV Volendam

1.74

allows per match

Hoek

1.69

RKAV Volendam

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hoek or draw

69%

Hoek or RKAV Volendam

79%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

52%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+

28%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals

88%

Hoek 2+ goals

63%

Hoek 3+ goals

36%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

82%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

51%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)

61%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.16

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hoek scores more

48%

level

21%

RKAV Volendam scores more

31%

Hoek at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Hage

13'

R. Tol

35'

S. Schalkwijk

70'

R. Impens

86'

D. Zwarthoed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff