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Hoek vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
4 – 0
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
10/26/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 9Sportpark Denoek (Hoek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hoek68%
×Draw16%
ONS Sneek16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
2.88
ONS Sneek
1.34

Hoek creates 115% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.10
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Hoek
1.69
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
84%
Hoek or ONS Sneek
84%
Draw or ONS Sneek
32%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
48%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
94%
Hoek 2+ goals
78%
Hoek 3+ goals
54%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
74%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
39%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
81%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.88

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hoek scores more
68%
level
16%
ONS Sneek scores more
16%

Hoek at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hoek 4 – 0 ONS Sneek

Hoek beat ONS Sneek 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek (Hoek).