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Hoek vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
CANC
00:00
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
5/16/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 33Sportpark Denoek (Hoek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hoek53%
×Draw20%
HSV ODIN 5926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
2.27
HSV ODIN 59
1.56

Hoek creates 46% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.10
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Hoek
1.69
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
74%
Hoek or HSV ODIN 59
80%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
47%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
33%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
90%
Hoek 2+ goals
66%
Hoek 3+ goals
39%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
79%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
46%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
67%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.27

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hoek scores more
53%
level
20%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
26%

Hoek at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hoek host HSV ODIN 59

May 16, 2020: Hoek take on HSV ODIN 59 in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hoek host HSV ODIN 59 at Sportpark Denoek (Hoek).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.