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Hoek vs GVVV Veenendaal — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
4 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
S. Schalkwijk 88', 85', 64'
M. De Smet 75'
J. Berrio 69', 55'
B. Burgering 62', 16'
Q. Veenhof 45', 22'
G. Sille 37'
1/28/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hoek30%
×Draw22%
GVVV Veenendaal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
1.58
GVVV Veenendaal
2.02

GVVV Veenendaal creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.10
GVVV Veenendaal
2.35

allows per match

Hoek
1.69
GVVV Veenendaal
1.06

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
52%
Hoek or GVVV Veenendaal
78%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
70%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
14%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
79%
Hoek 2+ goals
47%
Hoek 3+ goals
21%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
87%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
60%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
39%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

GVVV Veenendaal attack 2.35 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hoek scores more
30%
level
22%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
48%

GVVV Veenendaal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
B. Burgering
22'
Q. Veenhof
37'
G. Sille
45'
Q. Veenhof
55'
J. Berrio
62'
B. Burgering
64'
S. Schalkwijk
69'
J. Berrio
75'
M. De Smet
85'
S. Schalkwijk
88'
S. Schalkwijk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hoek vs GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat Hoek 7-4 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 28, 2023.

Goals: B. Burgering (16', 62'), Q. Veenhof (22', 45'), G. Sille (37'), J. Berrio (55', 69'), S. Schalkwijk (64', 85', 88'), M. De Smet (75').

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.