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Hodonín vs Třinec — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Třinec
Třinec
3/9/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Stadion u Červených domků

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hodonín42%
×Draw25%
Třinec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
1.54
Třinec
1.36

Hodonín creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.73
Třinec
1.66

allows per match

Hodonín
1.06
Třinec
1.34

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Třinec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Třinec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
66%
Hodonín or Třinec
75%
Draw or Třinec
58%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
21%
Třinec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
79%
Hodonín 2+ goals
45%
Hodonín 3+ goals
20%
Třinec 1+ goals
74%
Třinec 2+ goals
39%
Třinec 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
55%
Třinec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Třinec away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.73 + Třinec defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Třinec attack 1.66 + Hodonín defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hodonín scores more
42%
level
25%
Třinec scores more
34%

Hodonín at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hodonín 0–4 Třinec

Třinec beat Hodonín 4-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Červených domků in Hodonín.