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Hodonín vs Humpolec — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
5 – 0
Humpolec
Humpolec
8/29/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 5Fotbalový areál pod bůdama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hodonín73%
×Draw16%
Humpolec11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
2.54
Humpolec
0.88

Hodonín creates 189% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hodonín
3.06
Humpolec
1.10

allows per match

Hodonín
0.65
Humpolec
2.02

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Humpolec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
89%
Hodonín or Humpolec
84%
Draw or Humpolec
27%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
51%
Humpolec wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
92%
Hodonín 2+ goals
72%
Hodonín 3+ goals
46%
Humpolec 1+ goals
59%
Humpolec 2+ goals
22%
Humpolec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
87%
Humpolec (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 3.06 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.54

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Hodonín defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hodonín scores more
73%
level
16%
Humpolec scores more
11%

Hodonín at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hodonín vs Humpolec

Hodonín beat Humpolec 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový areál pod bůdama in Mutěnice.