Hodonín 2–0 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Hodonín

FT

2 – 0

HFK Olomouc

8/31/2019

4. liga - Divizie E · Round 5Stadion u Červených domků (Hodonín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hodonín63%

×Draw20%

HFK Olomouc17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HodonínExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.03

Hodonín

2.16

HFK Olomouc

1.03

Hodonín creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 66 away

1.86

creates per match

1.21

0.86

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Hodonín

1.86

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Hodonín

0.86

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw

83%

Hodonín or HFK Olomouc

80%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

37%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+

40%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals

88%

Hodonín 2+ goals

63%

Hodonín 3+ goals

36%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

64%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

28%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)

79%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.86 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.16

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Hodonín defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hodonín scores more

63%

level

20%

HFK Olomouc scores more

17%

Hodonín at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff