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Hodonín vs Frýdlant — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
8/12/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 2Stadion u Červených domků

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hodonín60%
×Draw21%
Frýdlant19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
2.07
Frýdlant
1.09

Hodonín creates 90% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.73
Frýdlant
1.12

allows per match

Hodonín
1.06
Frýdlant
2.41

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
81%
Hodonín or Frýdlant
79%
Draw or Frýdlant
40%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
36%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
87%
Hodonín 2+ goals
61%
Hodonín 3+ goals
34%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
66%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
30%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
75%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.73 + Frýdlant defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.07

Frýdlant attack 1.12 + Hodonín defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hodonín scores more
60%
level
21%
Frýdlant scores more
19%

Hodonín at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hodonín 1–0 Frýdlant

Hodonín beat Frýdlant 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Červených domků in Hodonín.