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Hódmezővásárhely vs Gyulai Termál — NB III - Southeast 2023

Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gyulai Termál
Gyulai Termál
11/17/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hódmezővásárhely31%
×Draw24%
Gyulai Termál46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hódmezővásárhely
1.38
Gyulai Termál
1.72

Gyulai Termál creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.69
Gyulai Termál
2.13

allows per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.31
Gyulai Termál
1.07

finishing

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par
Gyulai Termál+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hódmezővásárhely ↓

Gyulai Termál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hódmezővásárhely or draw
54%
Hódmezővásárhely or Gyulai Termál
76%
Draw or Gyulai Termál
69%

Winning margin

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
14%
Gyulai Termál wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
75%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
40%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
16%
Gyulai Termál 1+ goals
82%
Gyulai Termál 2+ goals
51%
Gyulai Termál 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
40%
Gyulai Termál (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hódmezővásárhely at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Gyulai Termál away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.69 + Gyulai Termál defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gyulai Termál attack 2.13 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hódmezővásárhely scores more
31%
level
24%
Gyulai Termál scores more
46%

Gyulai Termál at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gyulai Termál will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Hódmezővásárhely 0–2 Gyulai Termál

Gyulai Termál beat Hódmezővásárhely 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion in Hódmezővásárhely.