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Hodio vs Soleil — Championnat National 2019

Hodio
Hodio
FT
1 – 1
Soleil
Soleil
11/8/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade de Comè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hodio51%
×Draw27%
Soleil22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodio
1.41
Soleil
0.82

Hodio creates 72% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hodio
1.12
Soleil
0.82

allows per match

Hodio
0.82
Soleil
1.70

finishing

Hodio+0.00on par
Soleil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodio ↓

Soleil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hodio or draw
78%
Hodio or Soleil
73%
Draw or Soleil
49%

Winning margin

Hodio wins by 2+
25%
Soleil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hodio 1+ goals
76%
Hodio 2+ goals
41%
Hodio 3+ goals
17%
Soleil 1+ goals
56%
Soleil 2+ goals
20%
Soleil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hodio (draw refunded)
70%
Soleil (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodio at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.82 · 93 matches

Soleil away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodio attack 1.12 + Soleil defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Soleil attack 0.82 + Hodio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hodio scores more
51%
level
27%
Soleil scores more
22%

Hodio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hodio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hodio 1 – 1 Soleil

Hodio and Soleil drew 1-1 in Championnat National on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Comè in Comè.