Hodio 1–0 Dynamo Unacob: Result & Stats

Hodio

FT

1 – 0

Dynamo Unacob

5/14/2023

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 9Stade de Comè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Hodio48%

×Draw28%

Dynamo Unacob23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HodioExpected goals in this matchDynamo Unacob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.82

Hodio

1.32

Dynamo Unacob

0.82

Hodio creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

1.12

creates per match

0.82

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Hodio

1.12

Dynamo Unacob

0.82

allows per match

Hodio

0.82

Dynamo Unacob

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hodio+0.00on par

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodio ↓

Dynamo Unacob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hodio or draw

77%

Hodio or Dynamo Unacob

72%

Draw or Dynamo Unacob

52%

Winning margin

Hodio wins by 2+

23%

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hodio 1+ goals

73%

Hodio 2+ goals

38%

Hodio 3+ goals

15%

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals

56%

Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals

20%

Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hodio (draw refunded)

68%

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodio at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.82 · 93 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodio attack 1.12 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Hodio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hodio scores more

48%

level

28%

Dynamo Unacob scores more

23%

Hodio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hodio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff