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Hodio vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

Hodio
Hodio
FT
2 – 3
ASOS
ASOS
5/19/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 1Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hodio45%
×Draw29%
ASOS26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodio
1.23
ASOS
0.85

Hodio creates 45% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hodio
1.12
ASOS
0.88

allows per match

Hodio
0.82
ASOS
1.34

finishing

Hodio+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodio ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hodio or draw
74%
Hodio or ASOS
71%
Draw or ASOS
55%

Winning margin

Hodio wins by 2+
20%
ASOS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hodio 1+ goals
71%
Hodio 2+ goals
35%
Hodio 3+ goals
13%
ASOS 1+ goals
57%
ASOS 2+ goals
21%
ASOS 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hodio (draw refunded)
64%
ASOS (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodio at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.82 · 93 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodio attack 1.12 + ASOS defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

ASOS attack 0.88 + Hodio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hodio scores more
45%
level
29%
ASOS scores more
26%

Hodio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hodio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Hodio 2–3 ASOS

ASOS beat Hodio 3-2 in Championnat National on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.