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hodd vs Sogndal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

hodd
hodd
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Sogndal
Sogndal
2/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

hodd42%
×Draw24%
Sogndal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

hodd
1.61
Sogndal
1.44

hodd creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

hodd
2.00
Sogndal
1.33

allows per match

hodd
1.55
Sogndal
1.22

finishing

hodd+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

hodd or draw
66%
hodd or Sogndal
76%
Draw or Sogndal
58%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+
21%
Sogndal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals
80%
hodd 2+ goals
48%
hodd 3+ goals
22%
Sogndal 1+ goals
76%
Sogndal 2+ goals
42%
Sogndal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)
55%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.00 + Sogndal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sogndal attack 1.33 + hodd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

hodd scores more
42%
level
24%
Sogndal scores more
34%

hodd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

hodd
Sogndal
Marius Boe
Manager: Marius Boe
Luis Pimenta
Manager: Luis Pimenta

hodd 1 – 5 Sogndal

Sogndal beat hodd 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 28, 2026.