hodd 1–3 Juventud Torremolinos: Result & Stats

hodd

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Juventud Torremolinos

2/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

hodd39%

×Draw25%

Juventud Torremolinos36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

hoddExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.44

hodd

1.50

Juventud Torremolinos

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.55

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

hodd

2.00

Juventud Torremolinos

1.33

allows per match

hodd

1.55

Juventud Torremolinos

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

hodd+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

hodd or draw

64%

hodd or Juventud Torremolinos

75%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

61%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+

19%

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals

78%

hodd 2+ goals

44%

hodd 3+ goals

19%

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

76%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

42%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)

52%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.00 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.33 + hodd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

hodd scores more

39%

level

25%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

36%

hodd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

hodd

Juventud

Manager: Marius Boe

Manager: Antonio Calderon