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hodd vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

hodd
hodd
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Floro
Floro
10/3/20202. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

hodd67%
×Draw18%
Floro15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

hodd
2.35
Floro
1.02

hodd creates 130% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 20 away

creates per match

hodd
2.10
Floro
1.20

allows per match

hodd
0.85
Floro
2.60

finishing

hodd+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

hodd or draw
85%
hodd or Floro
82%
Draw or Floro
33%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+
44%
Floro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals
90%
hodd 2+ goals
68%
hodd 3+ goals
41%
Floro 1+ goals
64%
Floro 2+ goals
27%
Floro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)
82%
Floro (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.85 · 48 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.10 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

Floro attack 1.20 + hodd defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

hodd scores more
67%
level
18%
Floro scores more
15%

hodd at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: hodd vs Floro

hodd beat Floro 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.