hodd 3–1 Brattvåg: Result & Stats

hodd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brattvåg

L. Juberg-Hovland 90'

U. Syversen 72' (OG)

F. Gjerde 36'

O. Sundgot 17'

10/26/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

hodd55%

×Draw21%

Brattvåg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

hoddExpected goals in this matchBrattvåg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.25

hodd

2.03

Brattvåg

1.25

hodd creates 62% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 76 away

2.14

creates per match

1.70

0.81

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

hodd

2.14

Brattvåg

1.70

allows per match

hodd

0.81

Brattvåg

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

hodd+0.00on par

Brattvåg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Brattvåg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

hodd or draw

77%

hodd or Brattvåg

79%

Draw or Brattvåg

45%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+

33%

Brattvåg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals

87%

hodd 2+ goals

60%

hodd 3+ goals

33%

Brattvåg 1+ goals

71%

Brattvåg 2+ goals

36%

Brattvåg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)

70%

Brattvåg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

Brattvåg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.92 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.14 + Brattvåg defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.03

Brattvåg attack 1.70 + hodd defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

hodd scores more

55%

level

21%

Brattvåg scores more

23%

hodd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

O. Sundgot

36'

F. Gjerde

56'

B. Leeflang

63'

D. Brandal← R. Hjelmeseth

70'

A. Obiech← B. Leeflang

70'

S. Lille-Løvø← L. Rossi

72'

U. SyversenOwn goal

73'

A. Televik← E. Myrlid

79'

U. Seferi

81'

S. Lille-Lovo

82'

J. Konstali-Lødemel← I. Skotheim

82'

A. Roppen← F. Gjerde

82'

L. Juberg-Hovland← U. Seferi

86'

D. Bubahe← T. Fredriksen

90'

L. Juberg-Hovland

hodd

Brattvåg

1

Baskett

5

▼

Leeflang

2

Breivik

22

Refsnes

4

🥅

10

14

7

▼

Fredrikse

9

⚽

▼

1

4

5

8

10

▼

Skotheim

6

Urnes

▼

Seferi

23

⚽

▼

Gjerde

14

Bjørdal

7

▼

Hjelmeset

9

▼

Myrlid

Manager: M. Bøe

63'▲D. Brandal←▼R. Hjelmeseth

73'▲A. Televik←▼E. Myrlid

82'▲J. Konstali-Lødemel←▼I. Skotheim

82'▲A. Roppen←▼F. Gjerde

82'▲L. Juberg-Hovland←▼U. Seferi

hodd substitutes

22Brandal27Televik20Konstali-Lødemel21Roppen24Juberg-Hovland26Johansen30BjørnevikKorneičiks

Manager: T. Pedersen

70'▲A. Obiech←▼B. Leeflang

70'▲S. Lille-Løvø←▼L. Rossi

86'▲D. Bubahe←▼T. Fredriksen

Brattvåg substitutes

16ObiechLille-Løvø28Bubahe6Fosu-Mensah8Nakken11Sperre12Solås18Fylling19Tattum