Hobro 2–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Hobro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kolding IF

9/28/2025

1. Division · Round 11DS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hobro37%

×Draw26%

Kolding IF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HobroExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.32

Hobro

1.34

Kolding IF

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 81 away

1.33

creates per match

1.16

1.49

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hobro

1.33

Kolding IF

1.16

allows per match

Hobro

1.49

Kolding IF

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hobro+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobro ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hobro or draw

63%

Hobro or Kolding IF

74%

Draw or Kolding IF

63%

Winning margin

Hobro wins by 2+

17%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hobro 1+ goals

74%

Hobro 2+ goals

39%

Hobro 3+ goals

15%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

73%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

38%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hobro (draw refunded)

51%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 96 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobro attack 1.33 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + Hobro defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hobro scores more

37%

level

26%

Kolding IF scores more

37%

Hobro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hobro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff