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Hobro vs Aarhus — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hobro
Hobro
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus
Aarhus
M. Boye 61'
R. Hauge 50'
J. Serra 62'
S. Jorgensen 54'
P. Mortensen 9'
1/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hobro37%
×Draw26%
Aarhus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobro
1.35
Aarhus
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hobro
1.42
Aarhus
1.71

allows per match

Hobro
1.00
Aarhus
1.29

finishing

Hobro+0.00on par
Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobro ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hobro or draw
63%
Hobro or Aarhus
74%
Draw or Aarhus
63%

Winning margin

Hobro wins by 2+
17%
Aarhus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hobro 1+ goals
74%
Hobro 2+ goals
39%
Hobro 3+ goals
15%
Aarhus 1+ goals
74%
Aarhus 2+ goals
39%
Aarhus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hobro (draw refunded)
50%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobro at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobro attack 1.42 + Aarhus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aarhus attack 1.71 + Hobro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hobro scores more
37%
level
26%
Aarhus scores more
37%

Hobro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hobro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. Mortensen
50'
R. Hauge
54'
S. Jorgensen
61'
M. Boye
62'
J. Serra
Hobro
Aarhus
Jens Gjesing
Manager: Jens Gjesing
Jakob Poulsen
Manager: Jakob Poulsen

Match Recap: Hobro vs Aarhus

Aarhus beat Hobro 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 15, 2026.

Goals: P. Mortensen (9'), R. Hauge (50'), S. Jorgensen (54'), M. Boye (61'), J. Serra (62').