Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hobro vs Aalborg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hobro
Hobro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aalborg
Aalborg
R. Gyamfi 8'
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen 78'
6/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Als Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hobro41%
×Draw24%
Aalborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobro
1.62
Aalborg
1.46

Hobro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hobro
1.42
Aalborg
1.91

allows per match

Hobro
1.00
Aalborg
1.82

finishing

Hobro+0.00on par
Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobro ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hobro or draw
65%
Hobro or Aalborg
76%
Draw or Aalborg
59%

Winning margin

Hobro wins by 2+
21%
Aalborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hobro 1+ goals
80%
Hobro 2+ goals
48%
Hobro 3+ goals
22%
Aalborg 1+ goals
77%
Aalborg 2+ goals
43%
Aalborg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hobro (draw refunded)
55%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobro at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobro attack 1.42 + Aalborg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Aalborg attack 1.91 + Hobro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hobro scores more
41%
level
24%
Aalborg scores more
35%

Hobro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hobro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Gyamfi
46'
K. John← K. John
46'
N. Helenius← M. Makaric
46'
M. Jorgensen← O. Ross
46'
M. Bomholt← M. Bomholt
46'
M. Hojholt← M. Hojholt
46'
A. Jasson← V. Damgaard
46'
D. Caballo← E. Amankwah
46'
N. Arnorsson← N. Arnorsson
46'
R. Thelander← L. Kramer
46'
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen← K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
46'
V. Muller← R. De Boer
72'
78'
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hobro vs Aalborg

Hobro and Aalborg drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Gyamfi (8'), K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen (78').

The match was played at Als Stadion in Hadsund.