Hobart City 1–3 Taroona: Result & Stats

Hobart City

FT

1 – 3

Taroona

3/23/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 2Sandown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hobart City35%

×Draw19%

Taroona46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hobart CityExpected goals in this matchTaroona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

2.48

Hobart City

2.15

Taroona

2.48

Taroona creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

2.73

creates per match

2.96

2.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hobart City

2.73

Taroona

2.96

allows per match

Hobart City

2.00

Taroona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hobart City+0.00on par

Taroona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobart City ↓

Taroona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Hobart City or draw

54%

Hobart City or Taroona

81%

Draw or Taroona

65%

Winning margin

Hobart City wins by 2+

19%

Taroona wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hobart City 1+ goals

88%

Hobart City 2+ goals

63%

Hobart City 3+ goals

36%

Taroona 1+ goals

92%

Taroona 2+ goals

70%

Taroona 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Hobart City (draw refunded)

43%

Taroona (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobart City at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Taroona away — creates 2.96, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobart City attack 2.73 + Taroona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.15

Taroona attack 2.96 + Hobart City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hobart City scores more

35%

level

19%

Taroona scores more

46%

Taroona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff