Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2–1 Sanna Khanh Hoa

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

FT

2 – 1

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1/5/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai33%

×Draw30%

Sanna Khanh Hoa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoang Anh Gia LaiExpected goals in this matchSanna Khanh Hoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.06

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.00

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.00

Sanna Khanh Hoa

0.80

allows per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.33

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓

Sanna Khanh Hoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw

64%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or Sanna Khanh Hoa

70%

Draw or Sanna Khanh Hoa

67%

Winning margin

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

12%

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

63%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

26%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

8%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals

65%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals

29%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

48%

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.00 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 0.80 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

33%

level

30%

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more

36%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff