Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2–1 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

5/21/2024

V.League 1 · Round 20Sân vận động Plei Cu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai46%

×Draw27%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoang Anh Gia LaiExpected goals in this matchHồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.38

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

0.99

Hoang Anh Gia Lai creates 39% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 77 away

1.45

creates per match

0.82

1.16

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.45

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

0.82

allows per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.16

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw

73%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

73%

Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

54%

Winning margin

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

22%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

75%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

40%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

16%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals

63%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals

26%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

63%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.45 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 0.82 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

46%

level

27%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more

27%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hoang Anh Gia Lai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff