Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs Ho Chi Minh — V.League 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 88+ matches
Hoang Anh Gia Lai46%
Ho Chi Minh28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hoang Anh Gia Lai creates 33% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 89 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 88 matches
Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.44 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48
Ho Chi Minh attack 1.06 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Hoang Anh Gia Lai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Ha NoiHo Chi Minh City
Than Quang Ninh
Binh Duong
Sai Gon
Viettel
Song Lam Nghe AnHoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Da Nang
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Thanh Hóa
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hoang Anh Gia Lai host Ho Chi Minh on Sunday, 28 March 2021 at 10:00. The match is part of the V.League 1 2019/2020 season.
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3 – 0 Ho Chi Minh
Hoang Anh Gia Lai beat Ho Chi Minh 3-0 in V.League 1 on March 28, 2021.
The match was played at Sân vận động Plei Cu in Pleiku.