Ho Chi Minh vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai — V.League 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 90+ matches
Ho Chi Minh46%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ho Chi Minh creates 34% more chances
Season form · 91 home / 90 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ho Chi Minh ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches
Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46
Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.03 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Ho Chi Minh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ha NoiHo Chi Minh City
Than Quang Ninh
Binh Duong
Sai Gon
Viettel
Song Lam Nghe AnHoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Da Nang
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Thanh Hóa
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ho Chi Minh host Hoang Anh Gia Lai on Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 12:15. The match is part of the V.League 1 2019/2020 season.
V.League 1: Ho Chi Minh 4–1 Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Ho Chi Minh beat Hoang Anh Gia Lai 4-1 in V.League 1 on May 25, 2024.
Goals: S. Patiño (19'), Đinh Thanh Bình (42'), C. Timite (60', 90+3'), Hồ Tuấn Tài (76').
The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất in Ho Chi Minh City.