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Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs An Giang — Cup 2019

Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
FT
2 – 1
An Giang
An Giang
Nguyen Trung Dai Duong 90+1'
V. Vu 86' (pen)
Tong Van Hop 71'
4/23/2021CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Plei Cu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai41%
×Draw25%
An Giang34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.50
An Giang
1.33

Hoang Anh Gia Lai creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.00
An Giang
1.67

allows per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.00
An Giang
2.00

finishing

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par
An Giang+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓

An Giang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw
66%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai or An Giang
75%
Draw or An Giang
59%

Winning margin

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+
20%
An Giang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals
78%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals
44%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals
19%
An Giang 1+ goals
74%
An Giang 2+ goals
38%
An Giang 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)
55%
An Giang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

An Giang away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.00 + An Giang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

An Giang attack 1.67 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more
41%
level
25%
An Giang scores more
34%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hoang Anh Gia Lai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
Tong Van Hop
86'
V. VuPenalty
90+1'
Nguyen Trung Dai Duong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2–1 An Giang

Hoang Anh Gia Lai beat An Giang 2-1 in Cup on April 23, 2021.

Goals: Tong Van Hop (71'), V. Vu (86' pen), Nguyen Trung Dai Duong (90+1').

The match was played at Sân vận động Plei Cu in Pleiku.