Hòa Bình 1–0 Dong Thap: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Hòa Bình

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dong Thap

6/23/2024

V.League 2 · Round 21Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hòa Bình47%

×Draw32%

Dong Thap22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hòa BìnhExpected goals in this matchDong Thap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.66

Hòa Bình

1.12

Dong Thap

0.66

Hòa Bình creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

0.86

creates per match

0.60

0.72

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Hòa Bình

0.86

Dong Thap

0.60

allows per match

Hòa Bình

0.72

Dong Thap

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hòa Bình ↓

Dong Thap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hòa Bình or draw

78%

Hòa Bình or Dong Thap

68%

Draw or Dong Thap

53%

Winning margin

Hòa Bình wins by 2+

20%

Dong Thap wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hòa Bình 1+ goals

67%

Hòa Bình 2+ goals

31%

Hòa Bình 3+ goals

10%

Dong Thap 1+ goals

48%

Dong Thap 2+ goals

14%

Dong Thap 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)

68%

Dong Thap (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hòa Bình at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hòa Bình attack 0.86 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Hòa Bình defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hòa Bình scores more

47%

level

32%

Dong Thap scores more

22%

Hòa Bình at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff