Ho Chi Minh vs Than Quang Ninh — V.League 1 2019
V.League 1 · Round 21Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City))Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Ho Chi Minh43%
Than Quang Ninh30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ho Chi Minh creates 25% more chances
Season form · 91 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ho Chi Minh ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches
Than Quang Ninh away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Than Quang Ninh defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39
Than Quang Ninh attack 1.07 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Ho Chi Minh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Ha NoiHo Chi Minh CityThan Quang Ninh
Binh Duong
Sai Gon
Viettel
Song Lam Nghe An
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Da Nang
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Thanh Hóa
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ho Chi Minh host Than Quang Ninh on Saturday, 17 August 2019 at 12:00. The match is part of the V.League 1 2019/2020 season.
V.League 1: Ho Chi Minh 3–1 Than Quang Ninh
Ho Chi Minh beat Than Quang Ninh 3-1 in V.League 1 on August 17, 2019.
The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City)).