Ho Chi Minh 1–1 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | Cup

Ho Chi Minh

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sai Gon

4/10/2022

Cup · Round of 16Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ho Chi Minh35%

×Draw24%

Sai Gon41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.58

Ho Chi Minh

1.46

Sai Gon

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

2.67

0.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.25

Sai Gon

2.67

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

0.50

Sai Gon

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Sai Gon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

59%

Ho Chi Minh or Sai Gon

76%

Draw or Sai Gon

65%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

16%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

77%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

43%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

18%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

79%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

47%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

47%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.25 + Sai Gon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sai Gon attack 2.67 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

35%

level

24%

Sai Gon scores more

41%

Sai Gon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff