Ho Chi Minh 0–0 Phu Dong: Result & Stats | Cup

Ho Chi Minh

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Phu Dong

10/20/2024

Cup · 1st RoundSân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ho Chi Minh49%

×Draw26%

Phu Dong25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchPhu Dong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Ho Chi Minh

1.50

Phu Dong

1.00

Ho Chi Minh creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

0.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.25

Phu Dong

1.50

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

0.50

Phu Dong

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Phu Dong →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

75%

Ho Chi Minh or Phu Dong

74%

Draw or Phu Dong

51%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

25%

Phu Dong wins by 2+

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

78%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

44%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

19%

Phu Dong 1+ goals

63%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

26%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

66%

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.25 + Phu Dong defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Phu Dong attack 1.50 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

49%

level

26%

Phu Dong scores more

25%

Ho Chi Minh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff