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Ho Chi Minh vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Long An
Long An
5/9/2026V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ho Chi Minh56%
×Draw26%
Long An19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh
1.54
Long An
0.77

Ho Chi Minh creates 100% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.55
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh
0.64
Long An
1.53

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw
81%
Ho Chi Minh or Long An
74%
Draw or Long An
44%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
29%
Long An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
79%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
45%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
20%
Long An 1+ goals
54%
Long An 2+ goals
18%
Long An 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
75%
Long An (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.55 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Long An attack 0.89 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more
56%
level
26%
Long An scores more
19%

Ho Chi Minh at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh vs Long An

Ho Chi Minh and Long An drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on May 9, 2026.