Ho Chi Minh vs Ho Chi Minh City — Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Ho Chi Minh72%
Ho Chi Minh City7%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ho Chi Minh creates 403% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No76
- Yes24
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ho Chi Minh ↓
Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches
Ho Chi Minh City away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ho Chi Minh attack 1.25 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71
Ho Chi Minh City attack 0.17 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 72%?"
Ho Chi Minh at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 72% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ho Chi Minh host Ho Chi Minh City on Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 12:15. The match is part of the Cup 2019/2020 season.
Ho Chi Minh 3 – 0 Ho Chi Minh City
Ho Chi Minh beat Ho Chi Minh City 3-0 in Cup on November 23, 2025.
Goals: Nguyen Tien Linh (8'), L. Williams (43'), Endrick (54' pen).
The match was played at Thong Nhat Stadium in Ho Chi Minh City.