Ho Chi Minh 1–0 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Dinh

Joao Pedro 60'

6/15/2025

V.League 1 · Round 25Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Ho Chi Minh39%

×Draw27%

Binh Dinh34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Ho Chi Minh

1.28

Binh Dinh

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 54 away

1.32

creates per match

1.17

1.16

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.32

Binh Dinh

1.17

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.16

Binh Dinh

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

66%

Ho Chi Minh or Binh Dinh

73%

Draw or Binh Dinh

61%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

17%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

72%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

37%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

14%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

69%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

33%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

54%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

39%

level

27%

Binh Dinh scores more

34%

Ho Chi Minh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

46'

V. K. Duong← Ngo Hong Phuoc

57'

Mac Quan Hong← L. T. Phong

58'

R. Rivas← R. Rivas

60'

Joao Pedro

66'

Nguyen Duc Hoang Minh← Luc Xuan Hung

67'

Truong Van Thiet← Vu Minh Tuan

71'

79'

Duarte

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff