Ho Chi Minh City 2–1 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | Cup

Ho Chi Minh City

2 – 1

Sai Gon

5/24/2020

Cup · 1st RoundSân vận động Bà Rịa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City34%

×Draw23%

Sai Gon44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi Minh CityExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.83

Ho Chi Minh City

1.58

Sai Gon

1.83

Sai Gon creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.67

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.50

Sai Gon

2.67

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.00

Sai Gon

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Sai Gon →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw

56%

Ho Chi Minh City or Sai Gon

77%

Draw or Sai Gon

66%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+

16%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals

79%

Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals

47%

Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals

21%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

84%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

54%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)

43%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 1.50 + Sai Gon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sai Gon attack 2.67 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more

34%

level

23%

Sai Gon scores more

44%

Sai Gon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff