Ho Chi Minh City 4–1 Dong Nai: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dong Nai

10/27/2024

V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động Bà Rịa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City53%

×Draw27%

Dong Nai20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi Minh CityExpected goals in this matchDong Nai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.77

Ho Chi Minh City

1.44

Dong Nai

0.77

Ho Chi Minh City creates 87% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 20 away

1.39

creates per match

0.40

1.14

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.39

Dong Nai

0.40

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.14

Dong Nai

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Dong Nai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw

80%

Ho Chi Minh City or Dong Nai

73%

Draw or Dong Nai

47%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+

27%

Dong Nai wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals

76%

Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals

42%

Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals

18%

Dong Nai 1+ goals

54%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

18%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)

73%

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 1.39 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more

53%

level

27%

Dong Nai scores more

20%

Ho Chi Minh City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff