Ho Chi Minh City 0–0 Dak Lak: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dak Lak

7/2/2022

V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Bà Rịa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City44%

×Draw27%

Dak Lak29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi Minh CityExpected goals in this matchDak Lak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Ho Chi Minh City

1.36

Dak Lak

1.04

Ho Chi Minh City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 21 away

1.39

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.39

Dak Lak

0.95

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City

1.14

Dak Lak

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par

Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Dak Lak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw

71%

Ho Chi Minh City or Dak Lak

73%

Draw or Dak Lak

56%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+

21%

Dak Lak wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals

74%

Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals

39%

Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals

16%

Dak Lak 1+ goals

65%

Dak Lak 2+ goals

28%

Dak Lak 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)

61%

Dak Lak (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 1.39 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more

44%

level

27%

Dak Lak scores more

29%

Ho Chi Minh City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff