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Ho Chi Minh City vs Bóng đá Huế — Cup 2019

Ho Chi Minh City
Ho Chi Minh City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
10/19/2024CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Bà Rịa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City60%
×Draw27%
Bóng đá Huế13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh City
1.42
Bóng đá Huế
0.50

Ho Chi Minh City creates 184% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City
1.50
Bóng đá Huế
0.00

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City
1.00
Bóng đá Huế
1.33

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw
87%
Ho Chi Minh City or Bóng đá Huế
73%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
40%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+
31%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals
76%
Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals
41%
Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals
17%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
39%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
9%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)
82%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 1.50 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more
60%
level
27%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
13%

Ho Chi Minh City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ho Chi Minh City 1–0 Bóng đá Huế

Ho Chi Minh City beat Bóng đá Huế 1-0 in Cup on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Bà Rịa in Bà Rịa.