Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HNK Zadar vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
0 – 1
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
9/8/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar77%
×Draw15%
Zmaj Makarska8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.54
Zmaj Makarska
0.70

HNK Zadar creates 263% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
92%
HNK Zadar or Zmaj Makarska
85%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
23%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
55%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
92%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
72%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
46%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
50%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
16%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
90%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.54

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
77%
level
15%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
8%

HNK Zadar at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: HNK Zadar 0–1 Zmaj Makarska

Zmaj Makarska beat HNK Zadar 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.