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HNK Zadar vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
2 – 0
Vodice
Vodice
4/12/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar74%
×Draw16%
Vodice10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.51
Vodice
0.83

HNK Zadar creates 202% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Vodice
2.17

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
90%
HNK Zadar or Vodice
84%
Draw or Vodice
26%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
51%
Vodice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
92%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
71%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
45%
Vodice 1+ goals
56%
Vodice 2+ goals
20%
Vodice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
88%
Vodice (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.51

Vodice attack 0.92 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
74%
level
16%
Vodice scores more
10%

HNK Zadar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: HNK Zadar 2–0 Vodice

HNK Zadar beat Vodice 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.