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HNK Zadar vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
4/26/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar65%
×Draw19%
Sloga Mravince16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.25
Sloga Mravince
1.00

HNK Zadar creates 125% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
84%
HNK Zadar or Sloga Mravince
81%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
35%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
42%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
89%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
65%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
39%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
63%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
26%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
81%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
65%
level
19%
Sloga Mravince scores more
16%

HNK Zadar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs Sloga Mravince

HNK Zadar beat Sloga Mravince 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.