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HNK Zadar vs Omiš — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
5 – 0
Omiš
Omiš
11/4/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

HNK Zadar75%
×Draw16%
Omiš9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.43
Omiš
0.71

HNK Zadar creates 242% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Omiš
0.67

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Omiš
2.00

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Omiš+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Omiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
91%
HNK Zadar or Omiš
84%
Draw or Omiš
25%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
52%
Omiš wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
91%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
69%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
43%
Omiš 1+ goals
51%
Omiš 2+ goals
16%
Omiš 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
89%
Omiš (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Omiš away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Omiš defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Omiš attack 0.67 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
75%
level
16%
Omiš scores more
9%

HNK Zadar at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs Omiš

HNK Zadar beat Omiš 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.