Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HNK Zadar vs Neretvanac Opuzen — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
11/10/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar71%
×Draw17%
Neretvanac Opuzen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.45
Neretvanac Opuzen
0.92

HNK Zadar creates 166% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.09

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Neretvanac Opuzen
2.04

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
88%
HNK Zadar or Neretvanac Opuzen
83%
Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen
29%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
48%
Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
91%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
70%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
44%
Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
60%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
23%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
85%
Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.45

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
71%
level
17%
Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
12%

HNK Zadar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs Neretvanac Opuzen

HNK Zadar beat Neretvanac Opuzen 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.